I’m having a rather bear of a day today, so I thought I’d give the politics a rest and actually write about something that makes me feel a little lighter (and a little more bubbly of the mouth, if you’ve ever discussed it with me): Soccer. As anyone who follows the game knows, this is a big night for soccer fans, and Arsenal fans like me. Tonight is the first leg of the Champions League quarter finals between Arsenal and Liverpool.
To understand this contest there are four main issues to consider: the two team’s individual styles, current form, home advantage, and the packed schedule of these two teams meeting over the next two weeks.
First, the individual styles. You’ll remember last year the final in which Liverpool lost to A.C. Milan because Milan’s corps were able to wait out Liverpool’s ‘bunker-and-counter’ mentality. Liverpool is a team entirely built around Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres’s abilities to run the counter attack that is sprung from the other nine men behind the ball. Torres has been successful this season where previous Liverpool strikers have not because he’s quick and crafty enough to stay high and wait for service, and then turn that service into points. Torres is easily a world class striker who is helped even more by being in his first year. He made a quick adjustment to England, and teams have yet to figure him out.

With Gerrard and Torres, who prefers slashing, diagonal runs in behind defenders to receive sharp passes from Gerrard, working combination, Liverpool have made an entire offense out of the counter-attack.
Arsenal, on the other hand, prefer to play a much more possession-oriented ground game emphasizing the short pass. While midfielder Cesc Fabregas has been a little off-form lately, along with forwards Emanuel Adebayor and Robin Van Persie, all three of them are still game changing players.



I have to give the edge to Arsenal in the style department. They have the possession and the patience to wait out Liverpool’s bunker mentality.
Current form plays into the hands of Liverpool, however the effect of the recent 10-man comeback from being down 2-0 against Bolton cannot be underestimated when looking at Arsenal’s current form. Liverpool have been playing much stronger in general, and practically become a different team in CL competition, but being that these are two English teams who know each other, Arsenal cannot be ruled out. They too have a history of stepping up in big games, as they did in their drubbing of Milan in the last round.
The home advantage piece plays into Arsenal’s hands as well. In the UCL set up, where away goals count more, I always prefer to see my team have the away game second. It takes pressure off the team if they give up goals in the first leg, and allows them the possibility of catching up going into the second leg if they fall behind. Admittedly the advantages of having the away-leg second are mostly mental, but they are still worth considering. Torres has had difficulty scoring on the road this season (19 of his 21 league goals have come at Anfield this season), so the chances of him having a quiet first game are good. If Arsenal come out of the first leg up or tied, the scales lean heavily in their favor with the away goal rule.
Lastly, the packed fixture schedule that sees these two teams meet three times in next week or so. After tonight’s match they will play on Saturday, April 5th and then again in the return leg for the CL. This I think is an advantage for Liverpool. Liverpool have been notoriously tactical throughout Rafa Benitez’s time in charge. While I think Arsene Wenger is a supreme tactician, Benitez is at least an equal mind, and may even be better at his substitution decisions and ability to change the game on the fly. Arsenal’s strength is in their patience and possession and with so much familiarity Benitez may reign his team in enough to out-think Arsenal’s youngsters.
Overall, I’ll predict a 1-0 win for the Gunners at Emirates, and a 2 all draw at Anfield. I think the Gunners will eventually face a tougher test vs Chelsea in the semi-finals, unless Chelsea’s tendancy to fall to underdogs this season bites them once again.
(Photos courtesy of dailymail.com, arsenalfcblog.com, and infosradasports.com)